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In this episode of the Weather Whys Podcast, host Ed Oswald explains the intricacies and impacts of the polar vortex, a term that has become part of everyday winter vocabulary. The episode delves into the polar vortex, how it functions, and the phenomena of sudden stratospheric warming events that can disrupt it. Oswald distinguishes between minor and major warming events and their varying impacts on weather patterns, especially in the mid-latitudes. The episode also addresses the limitations in forecasting these events and the historical context behind our understanding of the stratosphere. Tune in to get a comprehensive overview of the polar vortex and its potential effects on winter weather.
The Weather Station Experts also has a video of this same episode if you like pretty pictures!
[00:00:00] Ed Oswald: Welcome to another episode of the Weather Whys Podcast, where we answer the whys and whats of weather. I’m your host, Ed Oswald. Since this is our first episode of the new year, happy new year. Have you ever wondered what all the fuss is about when it comes to the polar vortex? Stay tuned because that’s what today’s episode is all about.
[00:00:18] A once boring way to describe the behavior of cold air at our planet’s poles has quickly become a part of our winter lexicon: the polar vortex.
[00:00:29] The mere mention of it on the evening news brings a sense of dread to some. But there’s also a lot of hype too, so we wanted to give you the facts.
[00:00:37] A polar vortex refers to a persistent area or more accurately, areas… Of low pressure that rotates around both poles.
[00:00:44] The polar vortex keeps the coldest air locked up in the Arctic during the winter, but can be disrupted by something called “sudden stratospheric warming.”
[00:00:51] It sounds worse than it is. These events are actually a fairly common atmospheric phenomenon, and it’s a process where the stratosphere warms suddenly, causing the stratospheric polar vortex to weaken. When this happens, the westerly winds that blow around the poles in the stratosphere weaken and can reverse direction in the strongest events.
[00:01:09] Scientists classify warming events into two categories, minor and major. In a minor event, the typical stratospheric westerly winds at the poles weaken, but do not completely change direction. The polar vortex is disrupted, but not displaced, so weather effects are limited to higher latitudes.
[00:01:26] However, in a major event, these polar winds reverse direction entirely, disrupting and occasionally splitting the polar vortex in two. Weather it’s affected in the middle latitudes, where the majority of the human population lives, often featuring bitter cold.
[00:01:39] While minor events occur several times a year, major events rarely occur more than once every two years. While more than one major event can occur in a single season, it’s extremely rare, and can amplify the cold to historic levels.
[00:01:52] So what about all these videos on YouTube right now hyping the cold that’s about to come? Keep this in mind. While we understand how the polar vortex operates, there are differences in opinion on how it affects surface weather conditions, especially during weaker events.
[00:02:06] However, during most major events, arctic air is pushed into Siberia, often propagating into North America and Northern Europe. This makes a set of conditions fairly likely if the polar vortex is disrupted so that cold air is pushed southward toward the United States.
[00:02:19] For us, this typically means very cold and dry conditions, but in Northern Europe, the cold is often accompanied by increased precipitation and storminess. Places like England and Ireland see increased snowfall, which usually occurs about two to four weeks after the warming event.
[00:02:34] But there have been major events that have not resulted in those expected conditions, or where the polar vortex is merely disrupted and not dislodged resulting in little effects in the mid-latitudes.
[00:02:44] Add to this weather models cannot model the stratosphere with the same accuracy they can at the surface, and our ability to forecast these events is limited. Furthermore, the concept of stratospheric warming only came about in the 1950s, so we don’t have a lot of data to work with, either.
[00:02:59] So, yes, the polar vortex is coming, and yes, it’s probably going to get really cold. But at the same time, there’s a lot of fun winter activities to call it makes possible.
[00:03:08] And it’s a perfect time to catch up on all that stuff you’ve been putting off since the holidays.
[00:03:11] Weather Whys is a production of the Weather Station Experts and the Weather Whys Company. Today’s episode was produced by Derek Oswald and myself from our studios here in West Lawn, Pennsylvania. If you’d like to learn more about Weather Whys, please visit our website at weatherwhys that’s W H Y S dot show.
[00:03:30] Our website has links to this episode and past episodes.
[00:03:33] We’d also love to hear from you. You can email us at [email protected]. We may respond to your comments in a future podcast. Don’t forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Again, thanks for listening, and as always, stay weather-wise.
[00:00:18] A once boring way to describe the behavior of cold air at our planet’s poles has quickly become a part of our winter lexicon: the polar vortex.
[00:00:29] The mere mention of it on the evening news brings a sense of dread to some. But there’s also a lot of hype too, so we wanted to give you the facts.
[00:00:37] A polar vortex refers to a persistent area or more accurately, areas… Of low pressure that rotates around both poles.
[00:00:44] The polar vortex keeps the coldest air locked up in the Arctic during the winter, but can be disrupted by something called “sudden stratospheric warming.”
[00:00:51] It sounds worse than it is. These events are actually a fairly common atmospheric phenomenon, and it’s a process where the stratosphere warms suddenly, causing the stratospheric polar vortex to weaken. When this happens, the westerly winds that blow around the poles in the stratosphere weaken and can reverse direction in the strongest events.
[00:01:09] Scientists classify warming events into two categories, minor and major. In a minor event, the typical stratospheric westerly winds at the poles weaken, but do not completely change direction. The polar vortex is disrupted, but not displaced, so weather effects are limited to higher latitudes.
[00:01:26] However, in a major event, these polar winds reverse direction entirely, disrupting and occasionally splitting the polar vortex in two. Weather it’s affected in the middle latitudes, where the majority of the human population lives, often featuring bitter cold.
[00:01:39] While minor events occur several times a year, major events rarely occur more than once every two years. While more than one major event can occur in a single season, it’s extremely rare, and can amplify the cold to historic levels.
[00:01:52] So what about all these videos on YouTube right now hyping the cold that’s about to come? Keep this in mind. While we understand how the polar vortex operates, there are differences in opinion on how it affects surface weather conditions, especially during weaker events.
[00:02:06] However, during most major events, arctic air is pushed into Siberia, often propagating into North America and Northern Europe. This makes a set of conditions fairly likely if the polar vortex is disrupted so that cold air is pushed southward toward the United States.
[00:02:19] For us, this typically means very cold and dry conditions, but in Northern Europe, the cold is often accompanied by increased precipitation and storminess. Places like England and Ireland see increased snowfall, which usually occurs about two to four weeks after the warming event.
[00:02:34] But there have been major events that have not resulted in those expected conditions, or where the polar vortex is merely disrupted and not dislodged resulting in little effects in the mid-latitudes.
[00:02:44] Add to this weather models cannot model the stratosphere with the same accuracy they can at the surface, and our ability to forecast these events is limited. Furthermore, the concept of stratospheric warming only came about in the 1950s, so we don’t have a lot of data to work with, either.
[00:02:59] So, yes, the polar vortex is coming, and yes, it’s probably going to get really cold. But at the same time, there’s a lot of fun winter activities to call it makes possible.
[00:03:08] And it’s a perfect time to catch up on all that stuff you’ve been putting off since the holidays.
[00:03:11] Weather Whys is a production of the Weather Station Experts and the Weather Whys Company. Today’s episode was produced by Derek Oswald and myself from our studios here in West Lawn, Pennsylvania. If you’d like to learn more about Weather Whys, please visit our website at weatherwhys that’s W H Y S dot show.
[00:03:30] Our website has links to this episode and past episodes.
[00:03:33] We’d also love to hear from you. You can email us at [email protected]. We may respond to your comments in a future podcast. Don’t forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Again, thanks for listening, and as always, stay weather-wise.
What is the Polar Vortex
00:00 Introduction and New Year Greetings
00:10 Understanding the Polar Vortex
00:44 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Explained
01:26 Impact of Polar Vortex Disruptions
02:34 Forecasting Challenges and Uncertainties
03:11 Conclusion and Podcast Information
References
- National Weather Service – What is the Polar Vortex?